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Home > Energy Reports > Energy Futures > 2008 Energy Futures Workshop - Session 2B - Issues in Electricity Generation and Transmission2008 Energy Futures Workshop - Session 2B - Issues in Electricity Generation and Transmission
2008 Energy Future Workshop
Session 2B
Issues in Electricity Generation and Transmission
Ottawa, Ontario
Presented by
Bill Seney
Market Analyst
Electricity Team
National Energy Board
22 January 2008
Speakers
Good day. My name is Bill Seney. I am a Market Analyst with the Electricity Team at the National Energy Board, and I will be moderating this session. I would like to start by introducing our panelists.
Our first speaker is Bill Marshall, President & CEO of the New Brunswick System Operator.
Next is Dr. Ron Oberth, Director, Marketing Operations of Atomic Energy of Canada Limited.
Finally, we have Peter Love, Chief Energy Conservation Officer of the Ontario Conservation Bureau.
Before the speakers begin, I would like to take a few minutes to summarize some of our key results and identify some issues raised in the report.
After that, each speaker will have about 20 minutes, then there will be a further 20 minutes at the end of the session for questions and general discussion. I would ask you to hold your questions until then to ensure all the speakers have time to finish their presentations.
Generating Capacity - Canada
One of the interesting results of the Energy Futures study is how the generation mix changes over time.
Total hydro generation increases in all 3 scenarios, but its market share declines as other forms of generation grow more quickly.
Nuclear and natural gas generation increase slightly.
The biggest changes are seen in coal, which declines a good deal, mainly due to the phase-out of coal in Ontario, and the increase in wind generation.
If you recall the generation numbers in the first session, you may have noticed that wind capacity has increased a lot more than wind energy. This is due to the intermittent nature of wind, which results in a lower capacity factor. Put another way, 1 MW of wind generation will produce less energy than 1 MW of hydro or nuclear generation.
With natural gas, as high capacity cogeneration and combined cycle units are added, natural gas generation grows more rapidly than natural gas generating capacity.
Generating Capacity - Ontario
It may be useful to look at the results for Ontario in more detail as it illustrates these changes.
Compared to the national totals, Ontario shows a greater growth in both nuclear and natural gas generation, which allows the retirement of existing coal generation by 2015. In the CT and FI scenarios we include a small (360 MW) clean coal pilot project post 2020, while the Triple E scenario has no coal generation at all.
Given the attention alternative energy sources have been getting in it may seem strange that wind capacity in Ontario is less than the national average, but this reflects the challenges associated with integrating wind in a predominantly thermal system such as Ontario. Mainly hydro systems such as British Columbia, Manitoba and Quebec find it easier to deal with intermittent sources of energy such as wind, and they bring the national average up. The share of wind power in Ontario is comparable to other mainly thermal systems such as Alberta or the Maritime provinces.
Electricity Wildcards
Infrastructure improvements face numerous challenges. Not only does this require raising significant amounts of capital, but there are potential shortages of skilled labor, and there is also the issue of public acceptance of new facilities. Will infrastructure improvements be made in a timely fashion to allow the electric system continue to be a reliable source of energy?
One development that has gathered much public interest in recent months has been the renewed interest in nuclear generation, not only in Ontario but in New Brunswick and Alberta as well.
Given energy demand's historic lack of price response innovative new programs are required to control growth of electric demand.
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